Four Things We Should Be Worried About Most This Holiday Season
With so much of the news headlines these days dedicated to the Gaza war, it is important to focus on the stories that matter most. By that I mean events that have the greatest potential consequences for the globe, rather than simply be terrible for those immediately involved. The Gaza war certainly is terrible; Sudan is far worse. The Syrian nightmare continues. But they don’t necessarily threaten to spark major conflicts. So what should we all be watching?
1. Ukraine.
We mustn’t forget this war. If Russia wins, Ukrainians obviously will suffer, but what matters for the rest of us is that a victorious Russia no doubt will be emboldened and pose a significant threat. It will have a greater appetite for conflict in Europe and anywhere else Russia sees fit to intervene, which now includes Syria and Africa. We also must not forget all the other countries on Russia’s periphery that Moscow might wish to force back into its imperium. A greater Russian threat also will drive defense spending and the allocation of defense resources, resources that could be allocated for other needs, like dealing with China, or Iran. President Obama had good reasons to wish to pivot to the Indo-Pacific; the stronger Russia is, the emptier our rhetoric about pursuing our Indo-Pacific strategy.
Part of what is so concerning about the Ukraine war is the pessimism that has set in regarding the course of the war among Ukraine’s friends and supporters. That combined with growing isolationism on the American Right could yield disaster. The worst-case scenario is that Russia will, and NATO, scorned by Americans, shatters. The parallel with the 1920s and 1930s, when the post-Great War security agreements, weakened by American disinterest, unraveled in the face of a revisionist Germany, is alarming.
Ideally, Europe would be able to soldier on without the United States, but let’s be honest: It lacks the unity of purpose and the political will to spend the kind of money that would require. Ukraine should have been a wake-up call for Europe, but it has not. The Germans in particular have been disappointing: The Zeitenwende thus far has been all talk. Europeans have ramped up some weapons production, but nothing like the scale required. At this point, they should be able to supply Ukraine continuously with ample supplies of shells. They cannot. They also already should have supplied Ukraine with usefully large fleets of Gripens, F-16s, and Mirage 2000s. F-16s are making their way to Ukraine, but ever so slowly.
2. China’s bullying of the Philippines in the South China Sea.
The bizarre tussle over shoals and a rusting Filipino hulk, the Sierra Madre, which has featured fleets of Chinese Coast Guard vessels and a “marine militia” attacking Filipino resupply boats with water cannons, has the potential to ignite a major conflict between the United States and China. The Philippines is, after all, a treaty ally of the United States, meaning the U.S. is bound to come to its former colony’s defense. This makes the situation more dangerous than Taiwan, which technically the United States is not obliged to help. Less dramatically, China, if it has its way, can be counted upon to press its advantage and continue to bully its neighbors. Its neighbors are well aware of this and are watching closely.
At stake here besides the Philippines’ territorial claims are America’s credibility as a security guarantor and treaty ally, not to mention its status since the destruction of the Japanese Empire as the hegemon of the Pacific. If the Pax Americana in the Pacific crumbles, the result will be instability and insecurity, i.e. conflicts that, given the Pacific’s huge economic importance, will be to the detriment of the entire globe.
3. The Houthis and the Red Sea
I confess to never having paid much attention to either the Houthis or Yemen; the Yemeni civil war was a peripheral conflict, in my eyes, and I have long recognized Yemen to be too complex for someone not versed in its complexity to dare any hot takes. Best leave it for actual experts. The situation has changed, however. The Houthis have all but shut down Red Sea traffic, which means it has at least partially shut down the Suez Canal. There is a growing list of major shipping lines that have suspended their traffic through the Canal. They include BP, Evergreen, and Maersk. This is a huge deal given the importance of Red Sea traffic for the global economy.
There is also something else afoot. The Houthis are more than just an Iranian proxy, but they are also an Iranian proxy, and we can safely assume that its attacks on Red Sea shipping have at least Iran’s tacit support. Moreover, their aggression is made possible by the proliferation of cheap precision weapons—provided by Iran—that have turned what had once been a marginal non-state actor into a force capable of holding the world economy hostage. The weapons enable Houthis to punch well above their weight, much as Hezbollah’s arsenal of Iranian rockets and anti-tank guided missiles gave it state-like military capabilities demonstrated by its war with Israel in 2006, a phenomenon analyzed by the late great Dave Johnson in his study, Hard Fighting.
The U.S. and its allies and partners intend to do something about the Houthis. The naval force they have assembled already is massive.
(Tweet dated December 18, 2023)
There are two catches here. The first is that it is not at all clear what can be done about the Houthis’ threat given how little there probably is to bomb. Drones and missiles do not require much in the way of infrastructure, and Saudi Arabia already has bombed plenty of targets in Yemen, with no evident effect. The second is that the real actor here is Iran. The risk of a larger confrontation with that country grows with every step made in the direction of striking the Houthis.
We need to watch to see if and how the U.S. manages to forge anything like a consensus regarding how to strike the Houthis and secure the Red Sea while managing the risk of escalation with Iran. This means that, once again, U.S. leadership is at stake, for once again, the world looks to the U.S. to take the lead and act.
All three conflicts have in common the critical role of the United States, and President Biden in particular. That also means that much depends on Biden’s ability not just to get things right, but to enjoy the support of Congress. Biden could lose the 2024 election. If Trump wins, all bets are off.
4. Trump Returns
This possibility should haunt us all. The issue is his capriciousness, his apparent lack of any appreciation for statesmanship and for all that goes into maintaining American power (like assuming the responsibility that comes with leadership and working well with allies and partners), his isolationism, and the damage he does to American democracy. There’s no need to belabor the point here. Hopefully, you all get it. If Trump is the Republican candidate, we must pray for Biden’s victory. If somehow another Republican gets the nod, we’ll discuss that later.