Trump did it. Now what?
I really did not think TACO had it in him. For once, I underestimated him.
But now what?
Let’s do this in two parts. First, what won’t happen. Second, what might happen. There will be no third part, i.e. what will happen. I have no idea.
What won’t happen
A U.S. invasion of Iran. Look, anything is possible. An asteroid could strike Connecticut tomorrow and wipe out the New York metropolitan area. The probability of it happening technically is greater than zero. Yet I’m not concerned. There is no plausible path toward a ground invasion so long as Iran does nothing bat shit crazy like nuke an American city. A major reason for bombing Iran is to preclude that possibility. U.S. involvement will be limited to air strikes. Smart bombs. Precision missiles. Commando raids at most. As for Israel, Israel simply lacks the means to project ground forces that far away. Again, at most a commando raid, something like Entebbe. But no more, and certainly not a sustained effort. In and out, fast.
To be clear, a ground invasion by either the U.S. or Israel would be insane. I would oppose such a thing, vehemently. But it is not going to happen.
A wider war. People say, “oh no, this could escalate into a wider war.” How? Israel has defanged Iran, at least in terms of its ability to wage any sort of conventional war, or even a proxy war, which was one of the pillars of its deterrence. Another pillar, ballistic missiles, is greatly reduced. Clearly Iran still possesses enough missiles to do real damage to Israeli cities, but we already are far away from the nightmare scenario of not too long ago wherein Hezbollah unleashed its missile arsenal and leveled northern Israel. That threat is gone.
What could happen?
Iran probably has enough missiles left to do some damage to U.S. bases and ships. Of course, the U.S. can respond to anything Iran does. That’s how the conflict could become “wider.” It could devolve into an escalating cycle of tit for tat strikes. The target list could expand, say, to include civilian infrastructure and Iran’s oil industry. Fortunately, America and Israel’s capacity to inflict pain upon Iran now is significantly greater than Iran’s ability to inflict pain upon either
Iran could resort to terrorist attacks. That’s perhaps the thing we should worry about most: Not only might the attacks be terribly costly, but they are the thing most likely to drag the situation into dangerous, uncharted waters. They are what could make anything possible.
That time Khamenei bombed Buenos Aires’ Jewish community center, killing 85.
Is there a risk the bombings will only spur Iran to build a bomb? Yes. But that is calculated risk. The assumption is that Iran was going to do it sooner or later, so let’s roll the dice and try to make it a lot more difficult.
What about Persian Gulf shipping and the Straits of Hormuz? This is one of the few cards remain cards Iran has left to play. If Iran cut off the shipment of oil through the Gulf and the Straits, it could hold the global economy hostage. However, I doubt it would do this, as it would invite further American retaliation and, perhaps most importantly, hurt China badly. America doesn’t need Gulf oil. China sure does. And it is the largest importer of Iranian oil in particular. It is hard to imagine Iran electing to kick China in the groin in such a matter. What would it gain?
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