Israel’s Counterstrike: Did It Work? Did It Restore Deterrence?
shurkin.substack.com
Israel’s recent counterstrike against Iran—in which Israel fired a few missiles that hit a few sensitive targets deep inside Iran with remarkable precision —clearly was a technical success. However, the strategic outcome is entirely unclear. Press reports indicate that Israelis themselves are satisfied that they successfully restored deterrence. At least that’s the official line. Maybe they have. The problem is that there is absolutely no way of knowing, and thus asserting that Israel has restored deterrence is, to my mind, absurd. This is not to say I disapprove of what Israel did. My problem is with affirming confidently that it worked, or that it did not.
Israel’s Counterstrike: Did It Work? Did It Restore Deterrence?
Israel’s Counterstrike: Did It Work? Did It…
Israel’s Counterstrike: Did It Work? Did It Restore Deterrence?
Israel’s recent counterstrike against Iran—in which Israel fired a few missiles that hit a few sensitive targets deep inside Iran with remarkable precision —clearly was a technical success. However, the strategic outcome is entirely unclear. Press reports indicate that Israelis themselves are satisfied that they successfully restored deterrence. At least that’s the official line. Maybe they have. The problem is that there is absolutely no way of knowing, and thus asserting that Israel has restored deterrence is, to my mind, absurd. This is not to say I disapprove of what Israel did. My problem is with affirming confidently that it worked, or that it did not.